Chris Archer - 2017 Fantasy Baseball AnalysisWhen it comes time to hunker down and complete your annual fantasy baseball player analysis, value is what you ultimately search for. In fact, more times than not the league champion turns out to be a team that ended up selecting a few key players later in the draft that totally out performed their ADP. Because of this simple fact, we’re always on the lookout for that on player who catapults us above the rest of the league. The key to finding that value is depends on many factors, but almost always relates to directly to skill, consistency, durability and opportunity. Finding the players that fit all this criteria isn’t easy abut there are a few gems that sit below the usual suspects in our rankings and I believe Chris Archer is one of those players. Below, I highlight 5 super-solid reasons for you to seriously consider placing Chris Archer at the top of your fantasy baseball value list.

#1 – Skills

When looking at player skills, I look to see if the player has the requisite core skills required to provide above average output. If the skills are there, the I want to know if the skills they possess are improving, declining or stagnant. Chris Archer shines in both of these categories. The analysis to the right identifies a core set of rock solid skills proving Archer is a true power pitcher with near elite skills in strikeout power, plate command, and pitch control. Improvement is evident in 4 out of the 5 categories below with only the BB/9 showing very little variation. Of particular not is the big jump to near elite level swinging strike rates that’s remained consistent over the last 2 seasons.

Year K/9 BB9 K/BB SIERA SwStr%
2013 7.1 2.7 2.7 3.88 9%
2014 8 3.3 2.4 3.8 9%
2015 10.7 2.8 3.8 3.08 13%
2016 10.4 3 3.5 3.5 12%

#2 – Consistency

In addition to core skills all pointing and moving in the right direction, Archer is, in my opinion a perfect picture of consistency in skills that truly indicate he should be a force to be reckoned with in 2017. The analysis at right shows rock solid consistency that can only be seen in a handful of MLB pitchers both present and past. An xFIP that has never left the 3’s, BABIP and LOB% Hard/Med/Soft Contact rates that remain virtually unchanged over the last 3 years.

Year LOB% Soft% Med% Hard% xFIP BABIP
2013 79% 15% 57% 28% 3.91 0.253
2014 72% 18% 51% 32% 3.7 0.296
2015 73% 18% 50% 32% 3.01 0.295
2016 73% 18% 49% 33% 3.41 0.296

#3 – Durability

Entering age 28 in 2017 without a single day on the DL, over 30 games started in each of the last 3 years along with averaging over 200 IP each of those seasons gives brings “Iron Man” references to Archer’s already impressive resume. Last year came with a bit of concern earlier in the season when possible shoulder issues were discussed along the DFS wire. Those worries quickly went away when he went on to dominate the 2nd half of the season.

Year IP IP/GS GS DL Days
2013 128 5.57 23 0
2014 194 6.07 32 0
2015 212 6.24 34 0
2016 201 6.09 33 0

#4 – Opportunity

Not too much to write about here folks as it is obvious Archer is the #1 starter for the Rays.

#5 – VALUE

This fantasy baseball analysis is focused on Archer’s value and that is where this article will end. Archer’s ADP is currently at around 53 in 15 team leagues. This puts him at around the 4th round. Granted, he’s obviously a top tier pitcher, but when you consider his skills being comparable to pitchers being taken as early as round 2 and in a tier of pitchers with serious injury risk, this is where Archer sets himself in high value tier for me. Archer represents a pitcher with a solid potential for a sub 3.50 ERA, 200+ K’s with over 200+ IP. These numbers aren’t much different than any pitcher picked in rounds 2 or 3 holding virtually the same potential in output. This year, I’ll be looking for value picks and Chris Archer will be at or near the top of my list.

As always, I welcome your comments and feedback,so feel free to comment below. If you found this article to be of value, feel free to share it as well. For updates on players in in the news and our ongoing fantasy baseball analysis, you can sign up for our news alerts below. Good luck to all of you in your 2017 fantasy baseball leagues.

Data references obtained from Fangraphs, BaseballHQ & MLB.com

Follow me

Doug Lukas

A passionate fantasy baseball enthusiast with a love for statistics and data analysis.
Follow me
Share